I'm writing this during the worst economic downturn most Americans have ever witnessed, which I decided to face head-on by sprawling on the couch and flipping through horse magazines while ignoring radio, news, and gloomy neighborly forecasts about the crisis.
I knew equine media would provide me the obscurity I sought, because the horse world excels at distancing itself from fiscal norms and realities. So, yes, while unemployment rates in the U.S. surge higher day to day, banks collapse, and businesses capsize, the prices for horses are... going up. In a market where--logically-- sale prices should be shockingly low, there is not a deal to be had. If I relied on the equine industry for my bearings, I would be led to believe we're actually in financially lush times where money is spilling in abundance from Americans' pockets.
This is nothing new, though. The horse sales market is one that makes zero sense. It follows no such thing as trends, measurable gains or losses, logic, or financial cycles. Above all, it does not make sense and likely never will. In fact, I'm recounting the number of my mid-30 year old students that have decided at some point to buy a horse. Each one has set out on his or her shopping spree with specific requirements such as wanting only a male horse, 10 years old, extensive training, black in color, priced around $5,500. A week later, every one of them has returned with a three-year old female possessing no training (unless you count the four times it bucked off its current trainer) with a $12,000 price tag. When I point out that the new acquisition is neither rideable nor sane and then query about the logic behind its purchase, my client can only stammer: " I can't explain, except as soon as I looked in her face, I knew she was my horse. She chose me."
Um, Okay.
This horse, which will turn out untrainable, will cost the proud owner roughly $50,000 in board fees over the next ten years. And here's the thing: unlike real estate and vintage cars, horse's don't gain value. The new-- and, now, poor-- owner will eventually sell this horse for $1,200. Anyone with an ounce of financial savvy will be shaking her head by now. But the horse world does what it does, which means it keeps stumbling along in its illogical and nonsensical ways, daring somebody, anybody, to figure it out.
For sellers, this is good news because it allows them during times like this to charge staggering sums for four-legged steeds without talent, brains, or beauty. Last week, I was contemplating a photo of a horse for sale that, all kidding aside, had such a dysfunctional body that I couldn't tell for a moment which was the front end and which was the back. Yikes. The cost for this gem? $9,500. The seller had indicated the price was "a steal" in this bad economy. I held off calling her to suggest she donate the horse to the petting zoo because it would never be capable of a riding career.
At the end of the day, though, it will be her and not me laughing to the bank. This seller has obviously operated for a while in this bizarre horse economy. She knows how it works. One day, her phone will ring and the caller will say he's looking for a bay colored, 16-hand Anglo-Arabian with competition experience, but within a week that same caller will be loading her midget 14-hand unregistered and untrained brown horse into his trailer with a money order payable for the full amount.
A year later, the fellow will probably return the horse to her, explaining that it just didn't work out for him. He will swallow the $9,500 price he paid for the horse, an additional $4,000 in board fees, and $1,300 in vet and farrier costs. Then, odds favor him repeating the whole scenario within six months-- purchasing an unsuitable horse for $9,000 or more, dumping time and money into him, and then either giving him away for free or re-selling him for $1,500. How's that for a return on investment?
Meanwhile, the seller of the original untrained unattractive brown horse I saw last week will gladly accept the cost-free return of her horse, because soon her phone will ring again and she will sell the horse for $10,500 this time around (because he now has a year of training, compliments of the fellow who returned him). It ends up being a sweet deal. She gets to profit twice on the unattractive horse with no talent and escapes paying a whole year of his feed and upkeep expenses. It's ingenious in an unexplainable way. Really, automobile dealers could learn a thing or two from the horse world. If it were measurable or made any sense, that is.
For anyone who's genuinely downtrodden about this economic downturn, I'd like to offer up my couch and this pile of horse magazines as therapy. A few minutes immersed in horse economics will leave you feeling more upbeat or at least so perplexed that you'll forget your woes. By the way, I know of a horse with relatively no talent for sale. Any takers?
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
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2 comments:
This article is very timely and relevant. As I quote Cameron Muir, an economist, "Home sales are unlikely to fall much further..That being said we expect home sales not to decline much further."
But it's never too late, with the right business plan set up, it will lead to valuable outcome. This is what most counselors would give as an advise.
At this year's World Cup, who'd have expected Pop Art, from Canada, to execute his perfect canter-to-absolutely-in-place piaffe, following the three riders who placed Top Three to boot? Now THAT was cheer-worthy, and if you were there (like I was), you'd have felt the electricity flow through the spectators, dismissing the "librarian-like tones" of the announcers. Nancy
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